The Rise and Fall in Retail eCommerce: Analysing September 2025

Introduction

In the ever-changing world of retail, no two months look alike. Every cycle brings fresh insights into how consumer behavior, seasonal factors, and external pressures shape performance. For retailers, staying alert to these shifts is the difference between seizing growth opportunities and missing them.

Our retail analytics platform continues to provide real-time insights, helping both independent retailers and major chains refine their strategies. In September 2025, results across categories showed sharp contrasts: Gifts skyrocketed by +61.6%, driven by early seasonal demand, while Garden Furnishings plunged by -47.3%, reflecting the natural decline of outdoor-related spending.

Let’s break down why these trends unfolded — and what they mean for retailers heading into the final quarter of the year.

 

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Best Performing Sector: Gifts

The standout performer for September was Gifts, which soared ahead with an incredible +61.6% month-on-month increase. Several dynamics explain this surge:

1. Early Holiday Shopping

Consumers are shopping earlier than ever to spread costs over several months. With Christmas promotions appearing earlier in both online and offline stores, September acted as a kick-start for gifting season.

2. Economic Caution Meets Thoughtful Spending

Shoppers continue to watch their budgets closely, but gifts represent meaningful purchases. Retailers who bundled small, affordable luxury items or offered flexible payment options captured early-bird customers.

3. Rise of Personalised & Experiential Gifting

Customisable products, gift boxes, and experiential items (like subscriptions or curated kits) saw strong traction. Retailers who marketed uniqueness and “special touches” stood out in a crowded marketplace.

4. Strategic Promotions

September witnessed a wave of teaser promotions ahead of October and November’s big retail events (Halloween, Black Friday, Singles’ Day). Gifts benefitted as retailers cleverly positioned offers as “early access savings.”

5. Convenience & Omnichannel Wins

Click-and-collect, next-day delivery, and “gift wrapping” options simplified the journey. Retailers who reduced friction captured more spontaneous purchases.

 

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Worst Performing Sector: Garden Furnishings (-47.3%)

On the other end of the spectrum, Garden Furnishings continues to fall with a -47.3% decline reflecting seasonal change and different spending priorities.

1. Post-Summer Seasonality

The garden category peaks in spring and early summer. By September, demand drops sharply as households prepare for cooler weather. Outdoor furniture and big-ticket items naturally see weaker sales.

2. Consumer Focus Shifts Indoors

With the transition into autumn, consumer spending shifted to indoor comforts, home improvement, and gifting categories. The appeal of large outdoor purchases diminished significantly.

3. Storage and Practical Barriers

Bulky items face logistical challenges. Households reluctant to store large garden sets over winter hold off purchases until next spring. This dampens demand regardless of promotions.

4. Weaker Promotions vs. Other Sectors

While Gifts, Fashion, and Electrical categories benefited from strong seasonal campaigns, Garden Furnishings lacked equally compelling offers. Without heavy discounts or new designs, customers deferred spending.

5. Macro Spending Pressures

Back-to-school, early holiday shopping, and energy bills squeezed discretionary budgets. Garden items, seen as “non-essential,” dropped down the priority list.

 

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Other Category Highlights

Clothing (+5.9%)

Fashion continued to show resilience. Womenswear (+9.2%) and Footwear (+10.3%) led growth, driven by autumn wardrobe refreshes and seasonal demand. However, Accessories (-6.6%) and Lingerie (-3.7%) struggled, suggesting consumers prioritised functional purchases over discretionary fashion.

Electricals (+9.2%)

A standout within retail, especially in Gaming & Computing (+16.8%), fuelled by new product launches and strong back-to-school demand. However, Audio (-7.7%) and Small Appliances (-5.4%) fell behind, showing uneven category performance.

Health & Beauty (+1.7%)

Growth was modest overall. While Fragrance (+11.7%) and Makeup (+5.2%) outperformed — likely due to gifting and seasonal events — categories like Haircare (-6.7%) and Skincare (-7.2%) underperformed, hinting at cost-conscious consumer cutbacks.

Home & Garden (-2.6%)

The sector struggled, pulled down heavily by Garden (-40.7%), even though Home (+2.1%) showed slight growth in Homewares and Home Improvement. Indoor-focused retail is holding steady, while outdoor categories fade.

Beers & Wines (-31.9%)

After a strong summer peak, the category saw a steep decline. The shift away from outdoor socialising and barbecues in September significantly reduced demand.

 

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Looking Ahead: What to Expect in October

Gifts: Expect momentum to accelerate as Halloween, Black Friday, and early Christmas campaigns gain traction. Retailers should double down on bundles, personalisation, and convenience.

• Garden Furnishings: Sales will remain weak until spring. Focus should pivot to protective storage, covers, and outdoor heating to maintain minimal engagement.
  
  
• Clothing: Seasonal wardrobe refreshes will continue, with outerwear, footwear, and accessories playing bigger roles.
  
  
• Electricals: New tech launches and pre-Black Friday campaigns will keep categories like gaming and computing strong.
  
  

 

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Key Takeaways for Retailers

For Gifts:

• Position gifting early with value-driven bundles and curated sets.
  
  
• Offer flexible payment and subscription models to encourage bigger baskets.
  
  
• Highlight personalisation and exclusivity to stand out.
  
  

For Garden Furnishings:

• Pivot messaging toward storage, protection, and compact items.
  
  
• Prepare for next spring with early sign-up or pre-order campaigns.
  
  
• Streamline delivery and assembly processes to reduce friction.
  
  

 

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FAQs

1. Why did Gifts grow by +61.6% in September?
Early holiday shopping, strong promotions, and convenience services drove exceptional demand.

2. Why did Garden Furnishings decline by -47.3%?
Seasonality, storage barriers, and shifting consumer priorities reduced demand sharply.

3. Will Gifts continue to rise in October?
Yes, momentum will build as consumers move into peak shopping season with Halloween and Black Friday ahead.

4. Can Garden Furnishings recover before spring?
Not significantly. Retailers should focus on accessories, storage, and heating rather than big-ticket furniture.

5. Which subcategory showed the strongest growth?
Gaming & Computing (+16.8%), alongside Gifts, reflected strong consumer appetite for tech and early seasonal purchases.

6. Which category saw the biggest fall besides Garden Furnishings?
Beers & Wines (-31.9%), reflecting the post-summer decline in social gatherings and outdoor events.

 

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Conclusion

September 2025 highlighted the sharp contrasts in retail performance. Gifts soared (+61.6%) as consumers embraced early holiday shopping, while Garden Furnishings collapsed (-47.3%) in line with seasonal patterns. Other sectors like Clothing and Electricals showed steady resilience, while Beers & Wines faced steep declines post-summer.

For retailers, the lesson is clear: adapt messaging to seasonal shifts, anticipate consumer priorities, and remove friction in the buying journey. Those who reposition early — leaning into gifting, seasonal fashion, and tech — will be best placed to capture momentum as we move into the most critical retail months of the year.